You may have noticed the change in the series graphic from “Ending the War in the Pacific” to “Ending the Asia Pacific War.” The reasons were made clear in the two posts immediately preceding this post. One of the key points to keep in mind is “Excluding Japanese, every single day the war continued [in the summer of 1945] between 8,000 and perhaps 14,000 noncombatants were dying.” (Richard Frank) That is between 56,000 and 98,000 each week or 240,000 and 420,000 per month. The tragedy increased each day, and by far the greatest impact of that tragedy was borne by people who were not Japanese and who were not Westerners.

To not understand this basic reality of the summer of 1945 is to not consider the common humanity of all people involved in this epic battle. It was the dilemma of August 1945 for Allied planners (not having any atomic weapons in this counter-factual speculation) and facing this reality:

• Japan is militarily defeated by any meaningful measure.
• Surrender is not a military decision but a political one.
• The polity of Japan, via the Supreme Council (Big 6), allows hard-core militarists and nationalists to essentially veto all war decisions not to their liking. These people are committed to Ketsu-Go, the decisive battle that will bring the Allies to a negotiating table.
• The junior officers in Army Headquarter and in the units operating outside Japan in the occupied territories have a history of setting their own agenda. In other words, there is no surety that they will lay down arms even if Japan surrenders.
• As long as Japan does not surrender, the death toll of civilians outside of Japan will continue to increase.

What are the viable options available to the Allies? There are not many and what is available is not good.

Having described the actual history of August 1945 in the previous post, it is time to consider our counter-factual: what if the US and Allies did not possess atomic weapons and did not expect to possess them any time in the immediate future? How does the Asia-Pacific War come to an end?

But then we need to be sure we are talking about the same war. Here is the most commonly offered timeline:

• September 1, 1939 World War II began in Europe with Germany’s invasion of Poland
• September 3, 1939 France, Britain, Australia, and New Zealand declared war on Germany 
• September 6, 1939 South Africa declared war on Germany
• September 10, 1939 Canada declared war on Germany
• May 10, 1940 the Netherlands, officially neutral to this point, declared war after German troops invaded.
• July 10, 1940 Italy, an Axis ally, declared war on Britain and France after seeing German success. It is generally thought Mussolini felt it was an opportune moment to enter the war on Germany’s side, believing France was on the verge of defeat and that Italy could secure a place at the eventual peace negotiations with minimal cost.
• June 22, 1941 Germany declares war on Russia and begins the invasion. Russia did not technically declare war … They were busy fighting against a blitzkrieg. 
• December 7, 1941 Japan declared war on the United States (but failed to deliver the diplomatic message prior to the Pearl Harbor attack)
• December 8, 1941 Japan attacked Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaya. Diplomatically no message was delivered to Britain who learned about the attack via military channels. In Japan the information was printed in the newspapers.
• December 8, 1941 the United States, Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the Netherlands declared war on Japan after the Pearl Harbor attack. Interestingly the following countries also declared war on Japan that same day: Cuba, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama and the Dominican Republic.
• January 11, 1942 Japan declared war on the Netherlands the same day it launched its invasion of the Dutch East Indies
• May 22, 1942 Mexico declares war on Japan, Germany and Italy. Thousands of Mexican citizens enlisted in the US armed forces but most notably the Mexican Expeditionary Air Force’s Escuadrón 201, also known as the “Aztec Eagles,” fought alongside the U.S. in the 1944 and 1945 Philippines Campaign.
• August 8, 1945 – late to the battle, Russia declared war on Japan. Russia’s goal was control of the inland sea, warm water ports, Manchuria, Korea and possibly the resource rich Hokkaido.

With that all the major combatants were formally engaged in World War II. At least these are the dates that are given from a western perspective. When did it all end?

• September 3, 1943, the Italian government formally agreed to an armistice with the Allies although the German-backed Italian Social Republic in northern Italy continued fighting until April 29, 1945. 
• May 8, 1945 Germany unconditionally surrendered its military forces to the Allies
• August 15, 1945 Japan announced it accepted the unconditional surrender terms (with one condition – maintenance of the kokutai). The formal surrender was signed September 2, 1945. 

Six years and 1 day after the start, it was finally over – at least from a western perspective.

We are at a point in the series at which we should depart from history and consider the counter-factual that no atomic weapons were yet available to the United States and the Allies, nor would they be for the foreseeable future. But before we take that departure, let us consider the actual events of the first 15 days of August 1945 so we might gain insight into the forces and currents within and outside of Japan. 

The atomic weapon was successfully tested on July 16, 1945, ten days before the Potsdam Declaration. President Truman was briefed of the test’ success. The USS Indianapolis departed from Hunters Point, San Francisco carrying the weapon that would be dropped on Hiroshima on July 16th, delivering the weapon to Tinian on July 26th. The sequence of external events unfolded as follows:

• August 6, an atomic weapon is dropped on Hiroshima
• August 8, near midnight, the Soviets declare was on Japan
• August 9, an atomic weapon is dropped on Nagasaki
• August 15, the Emperor announced his Seidan, “sacred decision,” that Japan accepts the provisions of the Potsdam Declaration.