I have followed Nate Silver, an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He was the founder of FiveThirtyEight (the number of electors in the United States electoral college), and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. He rose to national fame for his deadly accurate predictions of the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, and in my view, both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. I was living in Florida in 2016 and the polls were calling for Ms. Clinton to win the State by 2-4 percentage points. Silver correctly called the state a “toss-up” leaning towards Mr. Trump. Continue reading →